The game of football is evolving. Today’s games are faster paced and higher scoring than ever before and more often than not, it’s the Over that wins the wager. Over 60% winners on the Overs as a matter of fact. This year’s NFL Exhibition Season saw some unusually high scoring games in August and bookmakers are back to their drawing boards wondering if this trend will continue into the regular season play.
Marc Lawrence of Covers recently told the press, “In a pass-happy league, the oddsmakers were forced to raise the bar last season. With other teams now toying with the pistol (offense), the roof could be blown open this season.” Lawrence then added, “First impression from the preseason is that, with a plethora of scoring, a new standard will likely be set on NFL totals this season.”
Over the past few seasons we have seen a steady increase in points scored from NFL teams. Back in 2009 the average was only 21.5 points per game. That rose to 22.0 in 2010, then 22.2 in 2011 and up to 22.8 in 2012.
2012 saw only three NFL teams that ran more than they passed and no one can be certain if any will remain so for the 2013 season. The NFL is going to a faster paced, pass oriented attack offense and consequently the final scores… and the totals… are also on the rise. Let the bookie beware. This trend is not likely to stop.
The NFL Commissioner’s office seems determined to make professional football more of an attraction that ever and scoring more points is part of that attraction. The fans love it whether they are wagering on the game or not. More plays means more action and that translates to more and more happy football fans buying tickets and NFL merchandise. Marketing is what Roger Goodell is all about.
So now oddsmakers are making the adjustments to the 2013 totals that they hope will bring the whole thing back on an even keel once again. Last year the average Over & Under was a little under 44 points. For 2013 or at least for Week One, they are almost up to 45.5 points per game.
Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com said, “Totals have gone up quite a bit overall. This is the first season that I can remember that every game has a total of at least 40 points. Main reason behind this is that more and more teams are pass-first type offenses.”
