The American League Wild Card game takes place tonight as the Minnesota Twins take on New York at Yankee Stadium in a one-game series that decides who will face the Cleveland Indians in the A.LD.S
Luis Severino (2.98 ERA, 14-6) takes the mound for the Yankees as he makes his first postseason start at any level.
Although Severino’s ERA has been up-and-down this season his pitching was stellar during the month of September, when he had an ERA of 2.10, something that gives the Bronx Bombers confidence despite his lack of postseason experience.
Ervin Santana (3.28 ERA, 16-8) will make the start for the Twins despite a history of struggles at Yankee Stadium, where he’s yet to win a game throughout his career.
Santana, who owns the fifth-best ERA in the American League and is striking 7.1 batters every nine innings, is 0-5 at Yankee Stadium, where he has an ERA of 6.43 in six career starts.
If Santana can put his fastballs and sliders where he wants he should be ok. Santana’s a veteran and although this is probably one of his most important postseason starts, pitching at Yankee Stadium should not faze him at this point in his career as he has ample playoff experience.
The Twins are confident in Santana and they believe he’s the right guy to start in this win-or-go-home series.
Although the Yankees have had the better offense and pitching this season they can’t underestimate the Twins in a winner-takes-all game.
The Yankees are 4-2 against the Twins this year and the following numbers explain why: New York is scoring 5.30 runs per game this season against 5.03 by the Twins. The Yanks have a slight edge in batting average (.262 to .260), but on the mound, New York has a clear advantage as their ERA is 3.79 to the Twins 4.59.
In head-to-head play, the Yankees have been even more dominant as they are scoring 4.50 runs per game to Minnesota’s 3.17.
The Yankees are batting .297 against the Twins, while Minnesota is averaging just .216 against New York.
The biggest difference is once again the ERA department, where the Twins are averaging 4.59 earned runs per game against New York, while The Yanks average 2.94 against Minnesota.
Playing at home also favors the Yankees big time as they finished the season with the best home record in the A.L (51-30) thanks to a 3.51 ERA at Yankee Stadium (third best in the A.L) and averaging more than 5.5 runs per game at the Bronx (most at home in the A.L).
This game may end up being close, but it looks like the Yankees will take it. Simply put, too many things would need to go right for the Twins for them to advance to the A.L.D.S.
